Section 3.3.5.1: Empowerment of citizens' role in the energy transition is a key factor in meeting the capacity targets of small-scale PV by 2030 in Greece. Modelling outcomes showed that households' behavioural aspects play a key role in the successful roll-out of small-scale PV investments in Greece and that fostering citizens' participation in the energy system under a people-powered storyline leads to increased adoption rates and the least behavioural uncertainty related to the household’s decision-making process. They also showed that both schemes should be utilised to meet the 2030 target of 1GW of total small-scale PV capacity set by the latest version of the National Energy and Climate Plan, as the different features of each scheme may address different audiences of potential adopters.

Net-metering is capable of driving adequate investments in small-scale PV that follow the Greek PV targets’ trajectory only in the short term. This is because grid charges for net-metered electricity burden the prosumers instead of being used to increase the value of locally generated electricity for their benefit. Thus, bill savings (i.e., prosumers’ profits) are solely dependent on the electricity retail price, which reduces consumers’ willingness to install a photovoltaic system. A self-consumption scheme that subsidizes battery storage showed great potential to incentivise investments y consumers. This is because, with a self-consumption scheme prosumers consume more self-generated electricity since it can be stored for later direct use. Furthermore, grid charges are paid only for the electricityconsumed from the grid. As such, there is less price-related uncertainty and prosumers’ profits are higher. However, stepwise reduction of subsidy is suggested, to ensure an initial uptake of PV, wihle avoiding excessive subsidies' cost. Regarding the applicability of AIM, the study showed that while 100% success of a policy pathway, regardless the contextual evolution, cannot be achieved, opportunities and dead-ends can be highlighted and visualized in a stakeholder-friendly fashion.

Simulation results showed that the net-metering scheme, as currently stands, is not capable of achieving the necessary capacity addition towards the Greek target of 2025. In particular, while the scheme could be successful until the end of 2021, it won’t be able to reach the national target of 2025, even in the most optimistic scenarios. The effectiveness of the net-metering scheme in Greece is closely related to the retail price of electricity. Simulation results indicated that an increase in the retail price, reduces the total uncertainty in the modeling outcomes, which is mainly introduced by modeling parameters, as the probability of investing, consumers’ beliefs and resistance towards investing. In policy terms, this is translated into a reduction of the behavioural uncertainty related to the effectiveness of the NEM scheme, especially for the case of risk-averse consumers, which implies that different sources of positive financial outcomes for consumers should be further investigated.