Tech-constrained EU pathways to net zero

Background

The European Union (EU) has committed to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, in line with its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Long-Term Targets (LTTs) under the Paris Agreement. To achieve these ambitious targets, a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is required, combined with an accelerated deployment of key decarbonisation technologies. However, the scalability of these technologies is increasingly constrained by geopolitical risks, supply chain disruptions, environmental considerations, and resource limitations. These challenges can delay the deployment of key technologies such as solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles, battery storage systems, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), biomass and underpin the EU’s climate ambitions. 

This study, part of the Global Effects theme within IAM COMPACT, investigates how supply chain constraints and geopolitical uncertainties may hinder the EU’s decarbonisation efforts. Using three leading Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), the analysis evaluates the implications of limitations and constraints in the uptake of key low-carbon technologies by developing four scenarios. The baseline scenario (NDC-LTT) implements the NDC targets for 2030 and the long-term mitigation goals for 2050. Three additional scenarios examine the impact of constraints on the uptake of 1) renewable energy and batteries, 2) biomass, and 3) carbon capture and storage (CCS), all critical for decarbonisation. 

Tech-constrained pathways scenario design

This study assesses low-carbon transition pathways by implementing disruptions from geopolitical events and technological limitations in existing IAM COMPACT scenarios developed using global IAMs, focusing on supply chain constraints of specific clean energy technologies. Four scenarios are considered (Figure 1). 

  1. Baseline scenario (NDC-LTT) assumes the implementation of NDCs for 2030 and LTTs across countries. NDCs represent short-term climate ambitions, while LTTs are more ambitious but often lack concrete policy backing. 

Building on the NDC-LTT scenario, this study introduces three additional cases to analyse the impacts of clean technology limitations on achieving European climate targets for 2030 and 2050: 

  1. Limited renewable energy sources (RES) scenario (NDC-LTT-LimRES) envisions challenges in adopting renewable energy, batteries, and electric vehicles due to geopolitical issues and material shortages, complicating the transition to sustainable energy systems. 

  1. Limited biomass scenario (NDC-LTT-LimBio) assumes a reduction in biomass usage in the energy mix due to environmental concerns and resource competition, necessitating alternative energy sources. Biomass consumption in the EU27 is projected to be limited to 5-6 EJ by 2050 (based on recent literature). 

  1. Limited CCS scenario (NDC-LTT-LimCCS) envisions constrained deployment of CCS technologies due to technological and social challenges. We assume CCS deployment is limited to 10-20 MtCO2 by 2050, based on current pilot projects in EU countries.

All constrained scenarios use the same carbon pricing and policy framework as the NDC-LTT scenario, isolating the effects of technology limitations.                

                   Tech Disruption Scenarios
                                                   Figure 1. Illustration of disruptive scenarios.