Holistic decision-making for climate & environment

Introduction

The work performed in DECIPHER includes the quantification and the impact assessment of 9 alternative scenarios. Scenarios differ with respect to climate damage intensity, adaptation and mitigation measures. Scenarios are evaluated compared to a Baseline scenario which reflects continuation of current trends in the field of energy and climate policy and most recent population and economic projections.

Baseline: The Baseline scenario serves as the starting point for the analysis. All scenarios are compared to the reference scenario. The baseline scenario reflects a world of current policies and trends. In terms of climate and energy policies this means that there is no deviation from publicly announced and committed targets. These policies are linearly projected into the future.

Baseline + Adaptation: This scenario framework introduces different degrees of climate damage, specifically coastal and riverine floodings and adaptation actions. We examine different levels of adaptation efforts and damages (low and high) to treat with uncertainty while we formulate a final scenario which combines high adaptation + damages with biodiversity adaptation

Baseline + Adaptation + Biodiversity: This scenario framework introduces on top of the Baseline+Adaptation expenditures required for the conservation of biodiversity.

NDC/LTS: This scenario framework introduces different decarbonization groups in the world. Europe achieves the NETZERO targets by introducing the Fit-for-55 package, while the rest of the world commits to their National Determined Contributions.

NDC/LTS + Adaptation: This scenario framework introduces different decarbonization groups in the world. Europe achieves the NETZERO targets by introducing the Fit-for-55 package, while the rest of the world commits to their National Determined Contributions. We introduce and assess alternative levels of adaptation efforts and damages (low and high) to treat with uncertainty while we formulate a final scenario which combines high adaptation + damages with biodiversity adaptation

NDC/LTS + Adaptation + Biodiversity: This scenario framework introduces on top of the Baseline+Adaptation expenditures required for the conservation of biodiversity.

NDC/LTS + CLIMACRED: This scenario framework introduces on top of the NDC/LTS a quantification of risk for firms.